Article 17219

Title of the article

MULTI-VARIANT FORECASTING OF SCENARIOS OF HOUSING MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN PENZA REGION
BY THE VOLUMES OF HOUSING COMMISSIONING IN THE CONDITIONS OF PROJECT FINANCING PRIORITY 

Authors

Esaf'ev Nikita Yur'evich, Postgraduate student, Penza State University (40 Krasnaya street, Penza, Russia), E-mail: n.esafiev@gmail.com 

Index UDK

332.834-044.966 

DOI

10.21685/2072-3016-2019-2-17 

Abstract

Background. The volume of housing commissioning is one of the key indicators of the development of the housing market. In this regard, forecasting the volume of housing commissioning is an important task in predicting the development of the housing market. The relevance of this study is due to the need to formulate an accurate forecast of the development of the housing market for the timely adoption of measures to coordinate and adjust the joint actions of state bodies and developers to achieve targets for the development of the housing market, including the achievement of targets for housing commissioning, indicated in the Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on March 1st, 2018, the national project Housing and Urban Environment, and in the “Project of socio-economic development of Penza region 2035” in the transition from shared construction to project financing using escrow accounts. The purpose of the study is to compile a multivariate forecast for the development of the housing market of Penza region in terms of housing commissioning in the context of project financing priority.
Materials and methods. The research objectives were implemented on the basis of the analysis of statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service on the introduction of housing in Penza region, official targets for entering housing and data from an expert survey. The study used three methods of economic forecasting: the linear interpolation method, the linear extrapolation method and the expert assessment method. The choice of methods of economic forecasting is determined by the available initial data and the scope of application of each of the forecasting methods.
Results. Optimistic scenarios, a scenario of stable growth and a pessimistic scenario for the development of the housing market of Penza region in terms of housing commissioning were compiled.
Conclusions. The forecasts make it possible to assess the possibility of increasing the volume of housing commissioned in Penza region before reaching the targets in the context of the transition to project financing and can be used to adjust the targets. 

Key words

housing market, housing commissioning, project financing, economic forecasting, economic development scenario 

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References

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Дата создания: 04.09.2019 08:52
Дата обновления: 05.09.2019 09:41